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The Cowboys open their season against the Giants as the significant home faves laying -7.5 points at most sports betting platforms. (tovább…)

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I discuss the dangers that may come from naively trusting the Kelly criterion’s suggestions and propose a practical solution. This practical solution is fully in line with how I invest at Junto. In the first section, I introduce the mental model of gambler’s ruin and the mental model of leverage.

Proportional Staking

We have verified how betting with Kelly formula is doing when the outcome probabilities are not exactly the ones we believe in. (tovább…)

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